Predictions: Who will be the GOP Candidate?

[Coito ergo sum]

There are two Mormons in the running.

New Poll Shows Romney Leading in NH, Followed by Paul and Huntsman Posted On January 6, 2012
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Alexandria, VA – According to new polls released by Watchdog.org, a project of theFranklin Center for Government and Public Integrity, a national nonprofit journalism organization, likely GOP voters in New Hampshire are favoring Mitt Romney for the GOP Presidential nomination at 37%, followed by Ron Paul at 19% and Jon Huntsman at 16%. Rick Santorum fell to fourth with 14% and Gingrich is polling at only 9%.
A seperate poll of 1,482 statewide voters from every political party found that 70% believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction and 50% of likely voters would choose the Republican candidate over President Obama. Full poll details are listed below.

The telephone surveys were conducted on January 4, 2012 of 1,482 likely voters in New Hampshire and 865 likely GOP Primary voters by Pulse Opinion Research. Pulse Opinion Research, LLC is an independent public opinion research firm using automated polling methodology and procedures licensed from Rasmussen Reports, LLC.

“Watchdog.org and the Franklin Center’s network of reporters in more than 40 states will continue to follow the breaking news from the GOP Primaries as well as all of the 2012 election races around the country,” said Franklin Center President Jason Stverak.

Watchdog.org is a collection of independent journalists covering state-specific and local government activity. The program began in September 2009, the brainchild of the Franklin Center for Government & Public Integrity. Founded in January of 2009, the Franklin Center is a nonpartisan organization that networks with news organizations in more than 40 states. The Franklin Center believes that new technology can advance the cause of transparency in government. The Franklin Center aims to educate, to advise, and to train individuals and organizations from all backgrounds to become thorough, unbiased, and responsible reporters well versed in new media techniques and journalistic integrity.

http://watchdog.org/12738/new-poll-show ... -huntsman/

[Warren Dew]

The guy has very moderate and ecumenical religious beliefs, and is far less religious than even Obama. He is pro-science, and pro-business and industry.

All of which could also be said about Romney, who runs much better against Obama. So why do you dislike Romney again?

[Pensioner]

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Damn, I'm late.

[Coito ergo sum]

The guy has very moderate and ecumenical religious beliefs, and is far less religious than even Obama. He is pro-science, and pro-business and industry.

All of which could also be said about Romney, who runs much better against Obama. So why do you dislike Romney again?

I don't "dislike" him. I prefer Huntsman because he has the successful businessman background, plus reelection as governor of Utah (wherein Romney only served one term and didn't run again because he was not so popular at the time), and add to Huntsman's credentials the Ambassadorships to Singapore and China (plus speaking
Chinese), and the fact that Obama appointed him to the Abassadorship to China (thus, suggesting that Obama had a favorable opinion of Huntsman, so how can Obama now cut him down?), plus some other things on his resume.

I also like Huntsman's demeanor more, from a stylistic standpoint. There is something robotic about Romney that I don't like, something unblinking and rote. It's harder to put my finger on, but it's just a general feeling.

Anyway - if Romney wins the nomination, then I wouldn't be nervous about it. I think he'd have a good shot to beat Obama.

[Ian]

An excellent article on Huntsman from 538:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... acks-time/

[Coito ergo sum]

Article in the Boston Globe says Romney mentioned Huntsman as a good VP candidate. I agree, except for the two/too Mormon factor.

The 538 article is good. It all boils down, though, to whether we see a Santorum-like surprise, or not. If Huntsman remains in single digits, he's done. If he surges to where he is neck and neck with the Romster, then he is in the game, and he will get the same puppy-dog leaping around from the press that Santorum got. Nobody mentioned Santorum having a chance pre-Iowa Caucus. Anything can happen.

[Ian]

Aside from the Mormon factor, I think a Romney candidacy will likely mean he'll feel some real pressure to balance the ticket with a bona fide conservative of some type, since too many rank and file Republicans don't see that from Romney himself. The top of the ticket aiming for independents/moderates, with the VP slot used to get out the votes of the conservative Base. In other words, a repeat of McCain's run in 2008.

I don't know if he'll go through with that, though.

[Coito ergo sum]

I still think Romney and Christie would be a great team, but I suspect Christie will be tapped for a different high level position.

Christie should be running for President. That guy is awesome.

[Ian]

Dare I predict a Kirsten Gillibrand candidacy in 2020 or 2024?

[Ian]

The New Hampshire Primary is today. It's almost certain to be a Romney win - what matters for the media's stories about the race is how big or small his margin of victory is, and what the 2nd and 3rd place finishers look like.

Polls won't close until tonight, except for the tiny town of Dixville Notch which traditionally casts all its votes just after midnight. This year, a total of nine votes were cast: two were for Romney, two for Huntsman, one for Paul, and one for Gingrich (the other three voted for Obama, although he's not being challenged on the Democrats' side).

[Coito ergo sum]

Dare I predict a Kirsten Gillibrand candidacy in 2020 or 2024?

Will she go down on the polls?

[Ian]

Dare I predict a Kirsten Gillibrand candidacy in 2020 or 2024?

Will she go down on the polls?

I know my poll rises when I think about her as President.

[Coito ergo sum]

Does the State normally wind up following the lead of Dixville Notch? Or, is there no correlation? I like seeing Huntsman in there with Romney.

Regarding Dixville Notch voting first ---

The tradition was first organized by prominent Dixville Notch resident Neil Tillotson (1898 - 17 October 2001), who was traditionally the first voter; he would reportedly hold his ballot over the ballot box while watching his wristwatch. At the moment of midnight, Tillotson would drop the ballot into the ballot box and the rest of the town's residents would follow suit. Since Tillotson's death from pneumonia in 2001 at the age of 102, the first voter has been chosen by random ballot beforehand.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_N ... _Hampshire

In 2008, Senator Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win the community's vote in a presidential election since 1968, by a margin of 15 to 6

[Tyrannical]

NH primary results

Mitt Romney 95,669 39.4%
Ron Paul 55,455 22.8%
Jon Huntsman 40,903 16.8%
Newt Gingrich 22,921 9.4%
Rick Santorum 22,708 9.3%
Rick Perry 1,709 0.7%

Mittens lives next door and owns a house in NH and the people are familiar with him. But ~40% is a strong showing and makes him the front runner.
And number one target

Huntsman spent all his time and money in NH and only made third with ~17%. He needed second. He can last a little while longer, maybe he will be the next hyped flavor of the week? If he can't do that before the South Carolina on the 21st he is done. So he has about a week to break out.

Gingrich should have done better in NH, ~10% just isn't good enough. Good thing his PAC just got $5M

Santorum, ~10% sure is an ego bust after a ~win at Iowa. Must not hate gays enough in NH If Huntsman is the next flavor of the week, Santorum goes back to obscurity.

Perry? He skipped NH, but even then <1% is an embarrassment. He's hoping for a strong showing in South Carolina.

Ron Paul? A stronger than expected second place finish. From the cheers and upbeatness of his results speech you'd think he had won it. He has the money, organization, and enthusiasm for the long haul, and no one but Mittens can claim that. Paul's campaign even called for the other candadites to drop out and unite with him against Mittens