Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

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Seth
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by Seth » Sun Dec 15, 2013 8:44 am

rEvolutionist wrote:Well these are based on models, and models are only as good as their algorithms, computing power, and the inputs they get. As inputs get better (and algorithms and computing power get more advanced) the models get better. It's absolutely no surprise that older models have larger error margins. And as long as those error margins are accepted, then it's a valid scientific process. There's a fallacious line of reason that denialists love to use - that is, one model was once wrong (or two or three were) therefore all models are therefore wrong. It's idiotic thinking, but the kind you expect from imbecilic denialists.
Problem is that when you view any of the the model's projections with their margins of error, you find that within a year or less, the predicted margin of error subsumes the maximum predicted temperature excursions on both sides of the mean. Which makes the model useless as a predictor of anything except IPCC and government funding.

In other words, the models themselves admit that they cannot produce an accurate prediction even a year into the future, much less five years, much less 50 years. It all turns out to be wild-assed guesses and ex post facto revisionism. And then there's that inconvenient sixteen year excursion from the predictions...
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by mistermack » Sun Dec 15, 2013 10:56 am

The big joke with the margins of error, is that it's based on fuck-all.

It's not like there's a history of predictions going back thousands of years, and all have fallen within certain margins of error.
There is no history of climate prediction, so to claim that the models operate within certain margins of error is completely baseless. It's a guess, in other words.

So they are guessing at the future climate, and guessing at the accuracy of their guesswork.

I guess I could do that.

The way that they operate, is to take the past record, run models, and find some that reproduce what happened. There is nothing wrong with that, except when you pretend that your model ''predicted'' something. It didn't.

It's like looking back at the last ten years of Kentuckuy Derby results, and finding a formula that produces all of the race results perfectly.
Will it produce the next year's results? Will it fuck.
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by pErvinalia » Sun Dec 15, 2013 11:06 am

I'm surprised you can get out of bed every day, given your contempt for science. The margin of errors are based on the error margins on the input variables. This is simple stuff. Stuff you'd know if you had the first clue what you were talking about.
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by mistermack » Sun Dec 15, 2013 11:35 am

rEvolutionist wrote:I'm surprised you can get out of bed every day, given your contempt for science. The margin of errors are based on the error margins on the input variables. This is simple stuff. Stuff you'd know if you had the first clue what you were talking about.
Maybe it does seem simple to you. That doesn't surprise me.
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by subversive science » Sun Dec 15, 2013 1:30 pm

mistermack wrote:
subversive science wrote:
mistermack wrote:Can climate scientists accurately predict the climate.
The answer is no.
Climate models predicted the climate response to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo rather accurately. A five second google search would have kept your foot out of your mouth.
I've heard that kind of bollocks many times.
Firstly, predicting a climate response to a major incident isn't predicting the climate. There's a world of difference.
But secondly, when you actually look at the ''predictions'' they generally turn out to be made AFTER the incident. And that was done over and over, after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
I notice you give no reference for what model predicted the response to an eruption that hadn't happened yet. How did they know the size or time of year, or type of eruption? Are you claiming that they got all that right, and then ran an accurate model of that exact eruption, and the climate effect?

Lets see your reference for that.

I think you're falling for the old trick of running the model after the event, and calling it a ''prediction''.
I think what you are looking for is a psychic, not a model based on atmospheric physics and chemistry.

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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by macdoc » Sun Dec 15, 2013 6:17 pm

what he needs is a physics teacher with a 18" ruler.....and not for measurements... :coffee:
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by MiM » Sun Dec 15, 2013 6:25 pm

JimC :ask: he's got experience from a Catholic school and all.
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by mistermack » Sun Dec 15, 2013 6:31 pm

subversive science wrote: I think what you are looking for is a psychic, not a model based on atmospheric physics and chemistry.
Yeh, well, that's the problem you face, when you try to predict the future.
Amazingly, it gets much more difficult, when you don't already know the answer.
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by macdoc » Sun Dec 15, 2013 6:36 pm

Problem is that when you view any of the the model's projections with their margins of error, you find that within a year or less, the predicted margin of error subsumes the maximum predicted temperature excursions on both sides of the mean. Which makes the model useless as a predictor of anything except IPCC and government funding.

In other words, the models themselves admit that they cannot produce an accurate prediction even a year into the future, much less five years, much less 50 years. It all turns out to be wild-assed guesses and ex post facto revisionism. And then there's that inconvenient sixteen year excursion from the predictions...
wow not even wrong...just plain ignorant....

what's this Seth...

1981 projection versus actual

Image

some people are subsumed by ideology and forget there is a real world out there where people don't give a fuck about your right wing blinkered bullshit.
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by Seth » Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:27 am

Doncha just hate it when facts interfere with your global warming propaganda?
Global warming? Satellite data shows Arctic sea ice coverage up 50 percent!
1:07 PM 12/16/2013

It was only five years ago in December that Al Gore claimed that the polar ice caps would be completely melted by now. But he might be surprised to find out that Arctic ice coverage is up 50 percent this year from 2012 levels.

“Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore said in 2008.

The North Pole is still there, and growing. BBC News reports that data from Europe’s Cryosat spacecraft shows that Arctic sea ice coverage was nearly 9,000 cubic kilometers (2,100 cubic miles) by the end of this year’s melting season, up from about 6,000 cubic kilometers (1,400 cubic miles) during the same time last year.

This came as a shock to researchers who saw Arctic sea ice coverage shrink to a documented low in 2012. However, now sea ice coverage has expanded to reach the sixth record low, according to AFP.

“We didn’t expect the greater ice extent left at the end of this summer’s melt to be reflected in the volume,” said Rachel Tilling of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling in a statement. “But it has been, and the reason is related to the amount of multi-year ice in the Arctic.”

“In previous summers, some of the [multi-year ice] migrated over to the Alaska and Siberia areas where it melted,” Dr. Don Perovich, a sea-ice expert at Dartmouth College, told BBC News. “But this past summer, it stayed in place because of a change in wind patterns. And so there’ll likely be more multi-year ice next year than there was this year.”

This is good news for the Arctic, but presents somewhat of a tough problem for environmentalists and some climate scientists who have been pummeled with evidence this year contradicting the theory of man-made global warming.

Scientists have been struggling to explain away the 15-year pause in rising global temperatures. Some have turned to solar activity or natural climate cycles to explain the hiatus in warming.

However, scientists have cautioned that while Arctic sea ice coverage expanded this year, one year is not enough to say the global warming has stopped.

“Although the recovery of Arctic sea ice is certainly welcome news, it has to be considered against the backdrop of changes that have occurred over the last few decades,” Andy Shepherd of University College in London told BBC News.

“It’s estimated that there were around 20,000 cu km of Arctic sea ice each October in the early 1980s, and so today’s minimum still ranks among the lowest of the past 30 years,” Shepard added.
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by macdoc » Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:58 am

Snort....the usual spin from non-science sources...

The Daily Caller...pardon my laughter

Just how much do you have to get to come "up" from a record low....that's akin to using the 1998 anomaly to say warming has stopped.....the usual bullshit.


The volume of multi-year ice has not recovered at all, and is showing a steeply negative trend.
••

That said the multi-year ice recovery buys time and may indicate a glimmer of a negative feedback as C02 levels in the Arctic are unusually low due perhaps to increased biome mass as it moves north. Very speculative tho.

This is where we are heading tho - and we are now past 400 ppm
Ice-Free Arctic in Pliocene, Last Time CO2 Levels above 400 PPM
Sediment cores from an undisturbed Siberian lake reveal a warmer, wetter Arctic

By Stephanie Paige Ogburn and Nature magazine

Scientists trying to determine how the Earth might change as temperatures rise often look back in time to a period around 3.6 million years ago called the middle Pliocene, when concentrations of carbon dioxide ranged from about 380 to 450 parts per million. (Today they are nearing 400.)

A study published yesterday in the journal Science analyzed the longest land-based sediment core ever taken in the Arctic and found that during this period, from 3.6 million to 2.2 million years ago, the area around the North Pole was much warmer and wetter than it is now.
more
http://www.scientificamerican.com/artic ... ove-400ppm

but you can continue to amuse us with your wishful thinking .....
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Dec 17, 2013 9:12 am

I'm afraid long term trend lines are too complicated for some of these denialists to understand, Mac. It's much easier to think that it's a scientific conspiracy.
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by Clinton Huxley » Tue Dec 17, 2013 9:40 am

2012: Area of rainforest size of Belgium chopped down
2013: One seedling pokes head above barren surface

Deforestation Denialist: See! Rainforest recovering!
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by mistermack » Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:44 pm

Drought is a sure sign of manmade global warming. As are floods and intermittent showers. So are hurricanes and gentle breezes. The rain is Spain stays mainly on the plain, due to agw.
And of COURSE, a 50% increase in Arctic ice, and record Antarctic sea ice levels, are an unmistakable sign. As is sixteen years without an increase in atmospheric temperatures.
What more evidence could you possibly want?
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Re: Global Warming Update: Hell Freezes Over!

Post by Clinton Huxley » Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:18 pm

Seems the average climate denialist expects the ice to melt in as linear and predictable a way as an ice-cube on a pub table.
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