China to keep Britain's lights on....

[pErvinalia]

I wish those two would just have it out! If the US isn't going to bomb the fuck out of North Korea, then I want some action in the China Sea!

[JimC]

Do interesting men create interesting times, or do interesting times create interesting men? An old philosophical question and not just a simplistic view of history
Anyways, you are still missing the point, the potential is already there in China. Imagine Nazi Germany before the start of WWII, say Hitler died of a heart attack in '39 before invading Poland but after Austria and German Czechoslovakia. The current government of China (Tibet and Mongolia) is not far off from pre-WWII Germany under national socialism. Be wary if someone charismatic like Mao arises in China.

I'm not missing the point. I'm saying it's a crap point. You think you can transfer pre-war German events to modern China.
Why? It simply doesn't follow that because something happened somewhere, the same thing will happen somewhere else.

Even if the situation was almost identical, that still doesn't mean the same thing will happen.

He's not saying it "will" happen, just that it's a higher probability than say the US going Nazi on us. China is aggressively nationalistic and is partaking in cultural genocide in Tibet to shut down dissent. It also claims Taiwan (and a host of smaller Islands in the seas off it's shores).

To be fair, Taiwan also claims sovereignty of China!

Tasmanians having been trying that on with mainland Oz for ages, the cunts!

[pErvinalia]

And the bloody US is supporting them too! Have you seen Tasmania's new AEGIS Frigates!?!

[mistermack]

He's not saying it "will" happen, just that it's a higher probability than say the US going Nazi on us. China is aggressively nationalistic and is partaking in cultural genocide in Tibet to shut down dissent. It also claims Taiwan (and a host of smaller Islands in the seas off it's shores).

I know he's not saying it is certain to happen. But he's saying that ''all it need is a charismatic leader''. Which is actually claiming that it ''will'' happen, if a charismatic leader emerges.
I'm saying it needs an awful lot more than that.

China is nowhere near as aggressively nationalistic as the US.
It's NOT partaking in cultural genocide in Tibet. That's bollocks.
It claims Taiwan. It's a perfectly fair claim. Taiwan IS part of China. And so are the islands.

[Tyrannical]

Forget about Hitler,Nazis,and gassing Jews for a minute and consider national socialism as a form of government.. That is the government I see currently in China, dominated by Han Chinese.
I don't see a Chinese Hitler arriving soon, but in ten or twenty years China will be in the position where it could based on technology and manufacturing ability build a dangerous war machine. They certainly have the population to do so, and with a single child policy and preference for boys have the spare men who will never marry to do so. They already covet underpopulated and resources rich Russian territory.

[MrJonno]

If China wants land it will buy it, war simply isnt profitable any more (except for people who makes weapons which is more a private capitalism thing)

The assets of a country these days are mostly its people as consumers, you don't benefit your country by blowing them up

[mistermack]

Forget about Hitler,Nazis,and gassing Jews for a minute and consider national socialism as a form of government.. That is the government I see currently in China, dominated by Han Chinese.
I don't see a Chinese Hitler arriving soon, but in ten or twenty years China will be in the position where it could based on technology and manufacturing ability build a dangerous war machine. They certainly have the population to do so, and with a single child policy and preference for boys have the spare men who will never marry to do so. They already covet underpopulated and resources rich Russian territory.

It's meaningless to write that China COULD do this or that. That applies right around the world. You can't take measures to counteract everything that COULD happen.
Historically, China is the one who has been invaded numerous times. It's never shown an inclination to expand, except economically. Looking at history, it's hardly surprising, if China wants the means to defend itself.

As far as taking territory goes, China fought a war of sorts against India, over disputed territory, which it won. But it never occupied that territory, and it's still administered by India. Hardly the attitude of land-grabbers. It defends what it considers as historically China, and that's about it.
I have no idea what you're talking about, that they are coveting Russian territory.
Sounds like some right-wing blogging bollocks to me.

[Warren Dew]

Forget about Hitler,Nazis,and gassing Jews for a minute and consider national socialism as a form of government.. That is the government I see currently in China, dominated by Han Chinese.
I don't see a Chinese Hitler arriving soon, but in ten or twenty years China will be in the position where it could based on technology and manufacturing ability build a dangerous war machine. They certainly have the population to do so, and with a single child policy and preference for boys have the spare men who will never marry to do so. They already covet underpopulated and resources rich Russian territory.

In ten or twenty years, most of China's population will be past middle age, because of the one child policy. That kind of demographics isn't conducive to a strong military.

Of the industrialized countries, only Russia has good demographics for building up a military, having seen a rebound in their fertility rate.

[Ian]

Of the industrialized countries, only Russia has good demographics for building up a military, having seen a rebound in their fertility rate.

Ah, but regarding the fertility rate in Russia at the moment, how much of that refers to Russian people having kids?

It's also likely a temporary surge in Russia. Good article on it:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomani ... ed-states/

[Warren Dew]

Of the industrialized countries, only Russia has good demographics for building up a military, having seen a rebound in their fertility rate.

Ah, but regarding the fertility rate in Russia at the moment, how much of that refers to Russian people having kids?

Since it's a Russian fertility rate, presumably all of it is Russian people having kids.

Or did you mean "Russian whites"? And how would that be relevant?

It's also likely a temporary surge in Russia. Good article on it:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomani ... ed-states/

If you analyze it in the Western framework, it shouldn't be happening at all, since fertility increases that are sustained for a decade or more aren't supposed to happen at all in industrialized nations which have passed through the demographic transition.

I think that author is mistaken in thinking that authoritarian regimes have little control over these things. In China, for example, Mao's large family policy likely substantially increased China's population over what it would have been, and the subsequent one child policy likely decreased it.