Huge asteroid headed for close encounter with Earth

[hackenslash]

OK, now carry out the calculation taking into account the number of humans who have ever lived with the number of humans alive today and tell us what the odds are again. I make it around 1 in 11, give or take. Further, we weren't dealing with the odds of an impact, but the odds of being killed given the impact. Not that the latter matters, of course, because however you look at it, your original statement simply doesn't stack up in any way.

You're exhibiting extremely muddled thinking and coming to precisely the wrong conclusion.

[mistermack]

The billions who have lived don't come into it.
I said YOUR chances of being killed by an asteroid.
A million to one. Roughly.

[hackenslash]

Bollocks. The billions who have lived definitely do come into it, because they are part of the sample set against which the probability is fucking measured. If you don't understand this, then you don't understand statistics.

You're wrong.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

[mistermack]

Bollocks. The billions who have lived definitely do come into it, because they are part of the sample set against which the probability is fucking measured. If you don't understand this, then you don't understand statistics.

You're wrong.

No, it's you that are writing bollocks.

How do seven billion other people affect my chances of being here when an asteroid hits?
My chances are exactly the same, whether there are seven billion, or seven humans on the planet.

You're just repeating what you've read, but applying it to the wrong question.
It's you who doesn't understand what you're writing, not me.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I think one of you is saying there's a certain amount of chance THAT YOU WILL BE THE HUMAN HIT IF AN ASTEROID DOES HIT EARTH.

[hackenslash]

Oh my. How do seven billion other people affect your chances? By being part of the fucking sample set by which statistics and probabilities are measured! This isn't rocket science.

[mistermack]

Oh my. How do seven billion other people affect your chances? By being part of the fucking sample set by which statistics and probabilities are measured! This isn't rocket science.

I think you're just bullshitting because you know you got it wrong.
There is a huge difference between YOUR chances of being killed by an impact, and the chances of ANY HUMAN being killed. If you don't get that, I wouldn't pronounce on statistics
if I were you.

[hackenslash]

For fuck's sake! Which bit of 'if a 10k bolide hits, we're all fucking toast' is failing to penetrate the fog here?

[mistermack]

For fuck's sake! Which bit of 'if a 10k bolide hits, we're all fucking toast' is failing to penetrate the fog here?

Yeh, Yeh, Yeh, OR, "I got it wrong and would rather bullshit than admit it."

It's your usual style anyway, so no surprise.
Don't prove the point, just bluster.

[hackenslash]

Hahaha. Nice bit of projection there, young padawan.

[devogue]

What about pissflaps the size of Texas?

[mistermack]

Hahaha. Nice bit of projection there, young padawan.

Hackenslash, I should buy a euro lottery ticket if I were you.
The more people who buy a ticket, the more chance you have of winning. They are all part of the sample set. Stands to reason.

[hackenslash]

Lovely strawman. You're clearly not interested, or you'd be able to accept that you're simply wrong on every level. Not the first time, of course.

[mistermack]

Lovely strawman. You're clearly not interested, or you'd be able to accept that you're simply wrong on every level. Not the first time, of course.

I've posted my calculation, and the reasoning.
Now, if you're not a bullshitter, post yours. Show us your calculation, and the reasoning, for your chances of being killed by an asteroid.

Instead of blather, lets see the numbers.