Expert: NKorea-to-US nuke strike possible from next year

[Warren Dew]

Everybody wants to get rid of DPRK and most want a unified Korea, but nobody wants to go through

... getting nuked in ...

the process.

[FBM]

I do, but the powers that be aren't asking for my opinion.

Ah, yes. I can believe that there is even a strong opinion, that knows and understands that this process is inevitable, sooner or later. But then there is also NWIIP. The NIMBY transferred to a temporal axis "Not while I'm in power".

Ah. Well played. Yeah, I can see that.

[mistermack]

Nobody is suggesting that China would go to direct war with the US over Korea.
But if the US bombed the shit out of N.Korea's Nukes, which I am sure they would love to do, the relations with China would be decidedly icy.
So would China keep buying US debt? Almost certainly not.
Would China sell advanced weapons to N.Korea? (who also have a HUGE military).
And if the US stopped trading with China, US inflation would jump through the roof, they would have to borrow elsewhere, at much higher rates, and if they defaulted on Govt. Debt, they would simply not get credit anywhere.
Yes, China would suffer, but the US has much more to lose.

I'm just pointing out that the options of the US are shrinking with every dollar borrowed from China. Why else would China keep buying US debt? They have plenty of domestic projects that they could invest it in, but lending it to the US is buying them huge political clout. They are getting political leverage, and a good rate of interest. Double the bang for every buck.
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[FBM]

I'd tend to agree. The only people that would benefit would be the Korean people, minus KJI and his merry band, and even the Koreans wouldn't feel the benefit until much later. Debt and trade are probably helping keep both Washington's hands tied and motivating Beijing to increasingly give KJI the cold shoulder. China doesn't want refugees flooding its border, either, so they keep propping up the North just enough to prevent collapse, but that's about it.

[Warren Dew]

But if the US bombed the shit out of N.Korea's Nukes, which I am sure they would love to do, the relations with China would be decidedly icy.
So would China keep buying US debt? Almost certainly not.

I disagree.

China has been in range of North Korea's nukes for years. Why do you think they wear the kid gloves with Kim Jong Il? The crazy man is their friend, sure, but he's still a crazy man - with nukes. Sure North Korea is useful as a buffer state, but a buffer state which might drag you into a nuclear war is a decidedly double edged sword.

If North Korea lost their nukes, it would still be just as good a buffer state, but without the unpredictable nuclear weapon down side. Plus if it involved a U.S. attack, that would force North Korea to align even more closely with China, which would give China more leverage over North Korean policies. From the Chinese perspective, it would be an improvement with no downside.

Obviously China couldn't admit that publicly. They'd take advantage of the rhetorical opportunity to try to put the U.S. on the moral defensive, sure. However, I wouldn't expect them to do any substantive retaliation against the U.S.

[mistermack]

It all sounds very logical, but I think that the priorities of the Chinese are not necessarily what we would think. I think their big worry is, and always has been, internal stability.

They have a huge country, with a vast population. There are many ethnic groups there, and their big dread is internal divisions and independence movements. They know that the US likes to stir up internal factions in any country that doesn't match their ideal. So they are trying to tie the hands of the US administration, in more subtle ways.

Keep N Korea the centre of attention, and Burma, and nobody pays much attention to Internal problems in China. Also, the problems in these countries make the Chinese population appreciate the stability that they have at home.

It's also a way of saying to the US, and the world, that China is a power in the world, and that the US can't dictate what happens around the world. They have a bit of an ego, and like to be considered a power.

So these countries ARE a buffer for China, but not so much physically, as politically.
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[FBM]

When China decided to reform their economic infrastructure, they tacitly agreed to play by economic rules at the expense of communist ideoloy. NK has no economic benefit to China, and poses no nuclear threat to them. If they were pressed to the point, I'm pretty sure they would jettison NK. There are plenty of indicators to that effect already.

[mistermack]

When China decided to reform their economic infrastructure, they tacitly agreed to play by economic rules at the expense of communist ideoloy. NK has no economic benefit to China, and poses no nuclear threat to them. If they were pressed to the point, I'm pretty sure they would jettison NK. There are plenty of indicators to that effect already.

I'm pretty sure that they would. But I'm also pretty sure that they would not take it lying down, because it would be seen as a defeat for their foreign policy. Maybe we wouldn't see it that way, but I'm pretty sure that they would.

China has been propping up NK and Burma for years now, and it would be a real blow to their self-esteem if they were forced to do a U-turn.
There must be factions inside the party who would make hay out of it. There are probably factions who would like to be rid of NK and Burma, who see them as liabilities, but others would see it as a matter of pride that their satellites remain under their control.

I have a feeling that the people who see them as a liability are beginning to win the argument though. More so with North Korea anyway.
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