You Don't Bring Super Sonic Missiles to a Gun Fight

[Seth]

Oh, we know how to win - at least on an engagement-by-engagement, strictly blowing up the guy who's currently shooting at us basis. Our problem is that above the scale of individual fights, we keep putting ourselves in situations where there is no realistic definition of "win".

Maybe we need to increase the blowing up level.

Neutron bombs, that's the ticket. Gets rid of the pesky insurgents, leaves the infrastructure. Well, most of it. You can still drill through the glass, and only have to wear the suits for a few years.

Weaponized anthrax is cheaper...

[JOZeldenrust]

The collapse of the tyrants didn't change the locals' religion.

No, but it does cast doubt on the assertion that pirates are acting according to the orders of their imams. They weren't commiting acts of piracy when the imams held actual power, but they are now, so whatever is making these guys hijack ships, it's not the imams. To imply that it is is dishonest.

IMO, the most likely cause of piracy is a combination of factors: a lack of centralized power in the region, abject poverty and desensitization to violence among the population.

[Coito ergo sum]

Where does anyone get the idea that the Islamists are gone from Somalia?

The pirates are Islamists. Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (“Jihadist Youth”) is linked to al-Qaeda and advocates the strict application of Islamic law. Andrew Mwangura, head of the East African Seafarers’ Assistance Programme, has said that currently “the entire Somali coastline is now under control of the Islamists.”

There are factions controlling parts of Somalia that are not said to be Islamist - mainly in the north - but the pirates are Al-Shabaab Al-Mujahideen. Holy fucking warriors murderers.

[Gawd]

Where does anyone get the idea that the Islamists are gone from Somalia?

The pirates are Islamists. Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (“Jihadist Youth”) is linked to al-Qaeda and advocates the strict application of Islamic law. Andrew Mwangura, head of the East African Seafarers’ Assistance Programme, has said that currently “the entire Somali coastline is now under control of the Islamists.”

There are factions controlling parts of Somalia that are not said to be Islamist - mainly in the north - but the pirates are Al-Shabaab Al-Mujahideen. Holy fucking warriors murderers.

American is controlled by savage Christians. Israel is controlled by savage Jews. Your point?

[JimC]

Before we get too sidetracked (it matters not whether the pirates are motivated by islam or greed, or a pragmatic combination of both), some military questions:

1. Can't the pirates boats be tracked by satellites in this day an age?

2. If they fail, has the USN got the equivalent of Predator drones, ideally ones that can be launched by vessels smaller than aircraft carriers?

3. If not them, what about long-range maritime reconaissance planes, and/or Air Force AWACS?

The key to this problem would seem to be effective intelligence and surveillance...

[Gawdzilla Sama]

JimC, the boats are fishing smacks, no different from thousands like them in the area. You have to know which one to track.

[Coito ergo sum]

Where does anyone get the idea that the Islamists are gone from Somalia?

The pirates are Islamists. Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (“Jihadist Youth”) is linked to al-Qaeda and advocates the strict application of Islamic law. Andrew Mwangura, head of the East African Seafarers’ Assistance Programme, has said that currently “the entire Somali coastline is now under control of the Islamists.”

There are factions controlling parts of Somalia that are not said to be Islamist - mainly in the north - but the pirates are Al-Shabaab Al-Mujahideen. Holy fucking warriors murderers.

American is controlled by savage Christians. Israel is controlled by savage Jews. Your point?

Not and not.

[Coito ergo sum]

Before we get too sidetracked (it matters not whether the pirates are motivated by islam or greed, or a pragmatic combination of both),

Motivations always matter. Why someone fights is very important if the idea is defeat them, or otherwise cause them not to fight. If someone is motivated by money, that's one thing. If they're motivated by Allah, that's quite another. You can't buy off the latter. You might be able to buy off the former.

some military questions:

1. Can't the pirates boats be tracked by satellites in this day an age?

Generally no, unless there is a known GPS or cell phone aboard.

2. If they fail, has the USN got the equivalent of Predator drones, ideally ones that can be launched by vessels smaller than aircraft carriers?

The ocean is much bigger than the area that predator drones can cover. We'd have to set up a costly network of surveillance drones with a carrier group parked off Somalia permanently. Then, what's seen from the air will be a boat with a bunch of black guys on it. They don't fly Jolly Rogers.

3. If not them, what about long-range maritime reconaissance planes, and/or Air Force AWACS?

The key to this problem would seem to be effective intelligence and surveillance...

The problem is that there is too much information to process. There are many boats, and only a few pirates (but, the few pirates do enough damage to be a concern to shipping).

[Gawdzilla Sama]

C.E.S., they're ALL pirate boats, and they're ALL fishing boats. Separating the sheep from the goats was a problem we became aware of during Operation Market Time.

[Seth]

JimC, the boats are fishing smacks, no different from thousands like them in the area. You have to know which one to track.

Nah. You just inspect them, and if you find a weapon, like an AK or an RPG, you hang the pirates and sink the boat.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

JimC, the boats are fishing smacks, no different from thousands like them in the area. You have to know which one to track.

Nah. You just inspect them, and if you find a weapon, like an AK or an RPG, you hang the pirates and sink the boat.

Operation Market Time, look it up.

[Ian]

Before we get too sidetracked (it matters not whether the pirates are motivated by islam or greed, or a pragmatic combination of both), some military questions:

1. Can't the pirates boats be tracked by satellites in this day an age?

2. If they fail, has the USN got the equivalent of Predator drones, ideally ones that can be launched by vessels smaller than aircraft carriers?

3. If not them, what about long-range maritime reconaissance planes, and/or Air Force AWACS?

The key to this problem would seem to be effective intelligence and surveillance...

I feel almost obligated to respond here, given my past and current professions. Fortunately, Coito's answers were fairly accurate. But I'll type a bit anyway.

1) No way. Satellite tracking of ships is dependent upon signals intelligence; radar emissions, communications, Automatic Identification System, etc. But most pirate boats operate from motherships (exceedingly difficult to distinguish from fishing boats and other commercial vessels), and are little more than tiny skiffs with an outboard motor. Too small and primitive for and electronic signature, hence no satellite tracking. Their tiny size also make them incredibly hard to see not only on radar (miniscule radar cross-sections are easily overlooked on surface search radar - moreover, surface search radar has a very limited range and it's tricky to filter out the surface clutter of a moving ocean. It'd be far easier for the Navy if they were pirate planes.), but it's even hard to see boats that small with the naked eye unless you're right up on top of them. Sea States of 0 or 1 (glassy conditions) are few and far between, and distinguishing teeny little pirate skiffs when you're up on the bridge of a destroyer is virtually impossible when you consider the vast size of the search areas they operate in. There's been a rather large international flotilla doing anti-piracy duty around Somalia for some time, and still some of those little buggers slip through and hijack ships. The military solution would be to turn those capital ship navies into fleets of much smaller but much more numerous craft that can flood the area and beat the pirates through the sheer attrition of frequent contact. But the problem of piracy isn't nearly worth the astronomical cost of doing that of course, so a handful of big high-tech ships is what's available to throw at them. It helps though - once in a while, motherships themselves are taken down as well.

Of course, the tracking and identifying problems experienced by those navies work in reverse. More than once, pirate craft have attempted to attack warships in low light conditions only to realize their mistake after it was too late to turn around.

2) UAVs launched by combatant ships aren't capable of prolonged surveillance on the order of Predator missions. Plus they'd run into the same problems faced by the ships themselves and the satellites. Without electronic signatures, their operators would be reduced to visually staring at the ocean and looking for those little boats. Better done by in person via helicopter, but helo missions consume a lot of gas and time and maintenance costs, and are best used for verification when there is information available about a potential target detected by other means (radar, communications, etc.) than continuous surveillance over broad ocean areas. As for aircraft carriers themselves, those ships and their air wings are far too valuable to even spend on prolonged anti-piracy missions. They're also ill-suited to the task.

3) Same problem as the rest. Those pirate skiffs are puny and tough for large aircraft to see. When atmospheric conditions are great (high visibility, daytime, very low sea state) then aerial reconnaissance is doable. But even then, unless they literally spot a non-oceanworthy small craft crowded by a group of guys carrying machine guns and rocket launchers, identification is a big problem.

Escorting high-profile and high-interest ships through the Gulf of Oman is one way to get around all the surveillance problems. But hijackings have occurred hundreds of miles further east and southeast. The pirates are based in a couple specific areas on land, and they learn which areas are too difficult to operate in. The motherships go elsewhere.

[Seth]

Before we get too sidetracked (it matters not whether the pirates are motivated by islam or greed, or a pragmatic combination of both), some military questions:

1. Can't the pirates boats be tracked by satellites in this day an age?

2. If they fail, has the USN got the equivalent of Predator drones, ideally ones that can be launched by vessels smaller than aircraft carriers?

3. If not them, what about long-range maritime reconaissance planes, and/or Air Force AWACS?

The key to this problem would seem to be effective intelligence and surveillance...

I feel almost obligated to respond here, given my past and current professions. Fortunately, Coito's answers were fairly accurate. But I'll type a bit anyway.

1) No way. Satellite tracking of ships is dependent upon signals intelligence; radar emissions, communications, Automatic Identification System, etc. But most pirate boats operate from motherships (exceedingly difficult to distinguish from fishing boats and other commercial vessels), and are little more than tiny skiffs with an outboard motor. Too small and primitive for and electronic signature, hence no satellite tracking. Their tiny size also make them incredibly hard to see not only on radar (miniscule radar cross-sections are easily overlooked on surface search radar - moreover, surface search radar has a very limited range and it's tricky to filter out the surface clutter of a moving ocean. It'd be far easier for the Navy if they were pirate planes.), but it's even hard to see boats that small with the naked eye unless you're right up on top of them. Sea States of 0 or 1 (glassy conditions) are few and far between, and distinguishing teeny little pirate skiffs when you're up on the bridge of a destroyer is virtually impossible when you consider the vast size of the search areas they operate in. There's been a rather large international flotilla doing anti-piracy duty around Somalia for some time, and still some of those little buggers slip through and hijack ships. The military solution would be to turn those capital ship navies into fleets of much smaller but much more numerous craft that can flood the area and beat the pirates through the sheer attrition of frequent contact. But the problem of piracy isn't nearly worth the astronomical cost of doing that of course, so a handful of big high-tech ships is what's available to throw at them. It helps though - once in a while, motherships themselves are taken down as well.

Of course, the tracking and identifying problems experienced by those navies work in reverse. More than once, pirate craft have attempted to attack warships in low light conditions only to realize their mistake after it was too late to turn around.

2) UAVs launched by combatant ships aren't capable of prolonged surveillance on the order of Predator missions. Plus they'd run into the same problems faced by the ships themselves and the satellites. Without electronic signatures, their operators would be reduced to visually staring at the ocean and looking for those little boats. Better done by in person via helicopter, but helo missions consume a lot of gas and time and maintenance costs, and are best used for verification when there is information available about a potential target detected by other means (radar, communications, etc.) than continuous surveillance over broad ocean areas. As for aircraft carriers themselves, those ships and their air wings are far too valuable to even spend on prolonged anti-piracy missions. They're also ill-suited to the task.

3) Same problem as the rest. Those pirate skiffs are puny and tough for large aircraft to see. When atmospheric conditions are great (high visibility, daytime, very low sea state) then aerial reconnaissance is doable. But even then, unless they literally spot a non-oceanworthy small craft crowded by a group of guys carrying machine guns and rocket launchers, identification is a big problem.

Escorting high-profile and high-interest ships through the Gulf of Oman is one way to get around all the surveillance problems. But hijackings have occurred hundreds of miles further east and southeast. The pirates are based in a couple specific areas on land, and they learn which areas are too difficult to operate in. The motherships go elsewhere.

Step 1: Identify pirate bases.
Step 2: Bomb them till nothing moves.
Step 3: Repeat as necessary.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Step 1: Identify pirate bases.

Sleepy fishing village.

Step 2: Bomb them till nothing moves.

Are you an American?

Step 3: Repeat as necessary.

See above.

[Seth]

Step 1: Identify pirate bases.

Sleepy fishing village.

Full of pirates. See step 1.