2012 US Election -- Round 2

[Coito ergo sum]

Real Clear Poltics showing the race very very close, with the lug nuts loosening up on the Obama bus.... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

[Ian]

Dare I make an electoral vote prediction at this point in the campaign?

Okay, just for shitzandgiggles: Obama 293, Romney 245

Battleground states I'm giving to Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virgina, New Hampshire
Battleground states I'm giving to Romney: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida
Missouri, Michigan and Pennsylvania do not count as battleground states, IMO; we know who's going to win those.

Discuss.

[Ian]

Here's a wild prediction: Romney will win the popular vote despite losing the electoral vote. He'll have excessive votes in non-battleground red states, whereas Obama's blue state victories will mostly be by narrower margins.

More predictions: Democrats will gain 12-15 seats in the House, short of the number they need to regain control. Democrats will gain one additional Senate seat, retaining their narrow control there. So, after a zillion dollars has been spent and the country wasted months screaming at each other throughout arguably the most negative campaign ever, nothing substantive will have changed between the White House and Congress...

...at least not on the surface. Underneath the numbers, everything will have changed. Two big things: 1) Obama will be a 2nd term President, free from the constraints of having to think about re-election. Bush waited until his 2nd term to try to tackle Social Security overhaul in 2005, among other things. I suspect he'll also be burned out from the election enough to try and tackle some big items he's danced around up until now, like immigration reform and defense spending (while his approval numbers slide into the lower forties despite a rebounding economy). And 2) the GOP will experience infighting which will make their last three years look like a pre-season scrimmage. If my earlier prediction about the parallels between the Tea Party and the New Left of the Nixon era hold true, it will be after this election that the far-right starts to be marginalized and shown the door, and we'll see a down-the-line moderate emerge as the Republican candidate in 2016, one who will be electable enough to gain the nomination without having to front and pander to conservatives throughout the primaries and beyond.

[Coito ergo sum]

Dare I make an electoral vote prediction at this point in the campaign?

Okay, just for shitzandgiggles: Obama 293, Romney 245

Battleground states I'm giving to Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virgina, New Hampshire
Battleground states I'm giving to Romney: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida
Missouri, Michigan and Pennsylvania do not count as battleground states, IMO; we know who's going to win those.

Discuss.

I think there is a good chance that Romney can take Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, and if he does that, he's got it sewn up. Any lucky draw of Ohio or Pennsylvania just puts a big exclamation point on it.

[macdoc]

[Ian]

Dare I make an electoral vote prediction at this point in the campaign?

Okay, just for shitzandgiggles: Obama 293, Romney 245

Battleground states I'm giving to Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virgina, New Hampshire
Battleground states I'm giving to Romney: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida
Missouri, Michigan and Pennsylvania do not count as battleground states, IMO; we know who's going to win those.

Discuss.

I think there is a good chance that Romney can take Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, and if he does that, he's got it sewn up. Any lucky draw of Ohio or Pennsylvania just puts a big exclamation point on it.

Ah, now I can get into some of my reasoning...

For Florida, I'll give it to Romney based on the overall trend of the state going red. I think it is. The senior vote will not be as clear as Romney might think; many will have Medicare on their minds. But absent that issue, it's not quite what the state was in 2000. Obama won it in 2008, but by a smaller percentage than he won the national vote.

I think Obama's got Ohio based on all the polling data to date, the condition of the economy there, and the influence of the auto industry there. Important as it is for Romney, he's still got his work cut out for him if he wants to take a lead there.

I think Obama will take Virginia because of the overall trend towards blue: the DC suburbs there have only grown since 2008, when Obama took the state by 6.3%. Polling samples probably undervalue the percentage of Virginia Democrats.

I'm iffy about Nevada, even though Obama won it by more than 12% in 2008. The economy there still reeks (though a case can be made that in weak economic times, people who are nervous about safety nets hesitate to vote Republican) and there's plenty of mormons. Still, Obama's polling leads have been fairly consistent.

Wisconsin I'm giving to Romney because of the direction of the polls there. Obama won it pretty big in 2008, but it looks awfully tight at the moment, so I figure I'll give Ryan's presence on the ticket the tiebreaker there.

Colorado is another one I'm not sure about. I put it in my Obama column because he won the state by 9% last time, and I can't see that much of a swing the other way being realistic in 2012. Could happen though.

Obama won Pennsylvania by over 10% in 2008, and he's polling around 5% up now (and that's after the first debate). He'll keep it.

Iowa was also won by Obama by almost 10% in 2008. Obama's leads have been consistent, and even a Rasmussen poll taken yesterday still showed him with a two point lead, which means it's probably more like five points and likely to go back up.

[Coito ergo sum]

Dare I make an electoral vote prediction at this point in the campaign?

Okay, just for shitzandgiggles: Obama 293, Romney 245

Battleground states I'm giving to Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virgina, New Hampshire
Battleground states I'm giving to Romney: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida
Missouri, Michigan and Pennsylvania do not count as battleground states, IMO; we know who's going to win those.

Discuss.

I think there is a good chance that Romney can take Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, and if he does that, he's got it sewn up. Any lucky draw of Ohio or Pennsylvania just puts a big exclamation point on it.

Ah, now I can get into some of my reasoning...

For Florida, I'll give it to Romney based on the overall trend of the state going red. I think it is. The senior vote will not be as clear as Romney might think; many will have Medicare on their minds. But absent that issue, it's not quite what the state was in 2000. Obama won it in 2008, but by a smaller percentage than he won the national vote.

Agreed.

I think Obama's got Ohio based on all the polling data to date, the condition of the economy there, and the influence of the auto industry there. Important as it is for Romney, he's still got his work cut out for him if he wants to take a lead there.

I wouldn't say Obama "has" Ohio. It is still clearly a toss-up state and the numbers are very close, but not to the extent of Florida, though. If Romney does not get Ohio, then he's probably toast.

I think Obama will take Virginia because of the overall trend towards blue: the DC suburbs there have only grown since 2008, when Obama took the state by 6.3%. Polling samples probably undervalue the percentage of Virginia Democrats.

This is doubtful, as I think most polls are showing Romney surging and leading in Virginia.

I'm iffy about Nevada, even though Obama won it by more than 12% in 2008. The economy there still reeks (though a case can be made that in weak economic times, people who are nervous about safety nets hesitate to vote Republican) and there's plenty of mormons. Still, Obama's polling leads have been fairly consistent.

Wisconsin I'm giving to Romney because of the direction of the polls there. Obama won it pretty big in 2008, but it looks awfully tight at the moment, so I figure I'll give Ryan's presence on the ticket the tiebreaker there.

Colorado is another one I'm not sure about. I put it in my Obama column because he won the state by 9% last time, and I can't see that much of a swing the other way being realistic in 2012. Could happen though.

Obama won Pennsylvania by over 10% in 2008, and he's polling around 5% up now (and that's after the first debate). He'll keep it.

Iowa was also won by Obama by almost 10% in 2008. Obama's leads have been consistent, and even a Rasmussen poll taken yesterday still showed him with a two point lead, which means it's probably more like five points and likely to go back up.

Here is an interesting poll, for what it's worth: http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-ro ... rnews-poll

If this is true, then Romney is looking good.

[Coito ergo sum]

Real Clear Politics says 156 electoral votes are now "toss ups" http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

“I know you’re under a lot of duress to make up for lost ground. But I think people would be better served if we don’t keep interrupting each other,” - Paul Ryan.

[Gerald McGrew]

Florida GOP group uses ambassador’s dead body in anti-Obama ad

http://elections.americablog.com/2012/1 ... log+Gay%29

In probably the most tasteless campaign ad we’ve seen in a while, Bilerico reports that a Florida gay Republican group used a picture of US Ambassador Chris Stevens’ lifeless body in a campaign ad bizarrely attacking President Obama on gay rights and Israel. The ad is reproduced at right.

Assholes.

[Kristie]

Florida GOP group uses ambassador’s dead body in anti-Obama ad

http://elections.americablog.com/2012/1 ... log+Gay%29

In probably the most tasteless campaign ad we’ve seen in a while, Bilerico reports that a Florida gay Republican group used a picture of US Ambassador Chris Stevens’ lifeless body in a campaign ad bizarrely attacking President Obama on gay rights and Israel. The ad is reproduced at right.

Assholes.

[Drewish]

GOProud is the gay son that is trying so hard to be loved by it's Republican father, but no matter how much he hates everything his father hates, he'll never win daddy's approval. Sort of sad actually.

[macdoc]

Too bad the world isn't voting....it would ALL over

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicd ... s-election

[Wumbologist]

Too bad the world isn't voting....it would ALL over

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicd ... s-election

Interesting that Afghanistan and Iraq want Mitt... I have absolutely no idea what to make of that, though.

[Ian]

Too bad the world isn't voting....it would ALL over

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicd ... s-election

Interesting that Afghanistan and Iraq want Mitt... I have absolutely no idea what to make of that, though.

"1 out of 1 vote each"

[Warren Dew]

Missouri, Michigan and Pennsylvania do not count as battleground states, IMO; we know who's going to win those.

True, largely because the Romney campaign decided not to spend money in Michigan or Pennsylvania - in my opinion a tactical mistake, but there it is.