The Trump Pandemic

[Brian Peacock]

Ah, good point - the 2-4 week lag.

[Sean Hayden]

Studies Point To Big Drop In COVID-19 Death Rates

Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The drop is seen in all groups, including older patients and those with underlying conditions, suggesting that physicians are getting better at helping patients survive their illness.

--link to paper in article

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... eath-rates

[JimC]

Yeah, a recent article in the NewScientist suggested that the drop in the death rate per infected person was real, not an artefact of testing numbers etc., and that better medical treatment of those who are hospitalised was a major factor...

[Hermit]

Yeah, a recent article in the NewScientist suggested that the drop in the death rate per infected person was real, not an artefact of testing numbers etc., and that better medical treatment of those who are hospitalised was a major factor...

Another factor might be that later generations of a virus tend to be less lethal. It gives them a better chance to spread than the ones that kill - especially the ones that kill quickly.

Also, maybe they kill the most susceptible victims early on. Later ones might be better able to resist dying from the virus's effects.

[NineBerry]

They are wrong. Our experts Christian Drosten says the Rona hasn't mutated and that the death numbers will be the same. I also saw an interview with an representative of our ICU doctors association. He said they new medication available helps to shorten the time people spend in the ICU but it cannot really lower the death rate.

He said one factor influencing the death rate heavily is how many cases there are in the icu. As soon as the case numbers go up, the death rate goes up as well because the patients cannot get the same amount of focused care.

[Tero]

The flu has several pieces of RNA that have to be assembled, whereas coronaviruses have one long string.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae
Even within one individual the mechanisms to produce flu virus make mistakes, producing part uninfecting virus and part new, functional virus.

Coronaviruses do less of this.

[Tero]

If 15% more beds are filled in Omaha, they have to start sending patients to Lincoln.
https://www.1011now.com/2020/10/30/nebr ... lizations/

[Brian Peacock]

They are wrong. Our experts Christian Drosten says the Rona hasn't mutated and that the death numbers will be the same. I also saw an interview with an representative of our ICU doctors association. He said they new medication available helps to shorten the time people spend in the ICU but it cannot really lower the death rate.

He said one factor influencing the death rate heavily is how many cases there are in the icu. As soon as the case numbers go up, the death rate goes up as well because the patients cannot get the same amount of focused care.

That makes sense. Intensive Care Units are a very, well, intensive environment. The provision of more beds, equipment and staff might help with treatment, but if the virus is still as deadly as it ever was then those benefits are going to be slim pickings. Still, even slim pickings add up when you're talking about 1000s or 100000s of patients.

[Sean Hayden]

So, they're wrong because...

edit: link to US study https://www.journalofhospitalmedicine.c ... nnel=28090

[JimC]

The NewScientist article I read emphasised how difficult it was to properly analyse the data at the moment. The authors suggested that the death rate was going down, but without a high degree of certainty. When this pandemic is mostly over, there will need to be teams of statistical experts gathering and studying the world-wide data in great detail, publishing in peer-reviewed journals, before definitive conclusions can be drawn.

[Tero]

Steroids and antibodies may help when you can helicopter yourself to Walter Reed but...
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5 ... alized?amp

[Tero]

There are no cases anymore,
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-cla ... -19-deaths
it's just doctors cashing in to make Trump look bad.

[rainbow]

Another 100 000 cases in the US yesterday.
Trump rallies may have an effect:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/16/tru ... outbreaks/

[Sean Hayden]

It was crowded when I voted, but what are you going to do? It's crowded everywhere. If treatments haven't improved, it's going to be an ugly winter in Texas.

[Brian Peacock]

Was that at Harris County's single ballot box?