arrest warrant for ex-leader

[cronus]

Problem is that even Russophones think of themselves as Ukrainian... the people don't want to split their own nation

Bloodbath of a civil war then dictatorship. Russians will threaten Europe's gas supply and European politicians of principle will emerge to say OK to whatever the Russians say. Good TV footage until it becomes boring because there are no tall buildings left.

[JimC]

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
`My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away".

[mistermack]

Problem is that even Russophones think of themselves as Ukrainian... the people don't want to split their own nation

Not like here then. We got a few million anglophones who want to split this nation.

If you can call the Scots anglophones.

[Svartalf]

Och aye, tae be ca'in Braid Scots English, that's a dire insult the noo.

[klr]

I don't see the Ukraine ending well. Overthrowing the President and then issuing an arrest warrant is like asking Russia to invade. And that's just the tip of the iceberg because much of the opposition is very split on what they want, except for freedom from Russia. The statues of Lenin are coming down in the Ukraine, but it's not just because Lenin was Russian, it was also because he was Jewish.

Part Jewish. He was also part Swedish, part German, part Kalmyk, etc.

[mistermack]

Split split split.

Who would it harm? Ukraine doesn't have much of a history as an independent country anyway.

I agree, I don't think it will end well. The opposition has made all the running so far, because the president was a cunt. But the russian-origin faction isn't going to take this coup lying down. And I don't hold out much hope of a free and fair election.
If it gets as far as that, it will be the most crooked election in history.

[JimC]

Split split split.

Who would it harm? Ukraine doesn't have much of a history as an independent country anyway.

I agree, I don't think it will end well. The opposition has made all the running so far, because the president was a cunt. But the russian-origin faction isn't going to take this coup lying down. And I don't hold out much hope of a free and fair election.
If it gets as far as that, it will be the most crooked election in history.

And Putin always has the option of sending in the tanks, to "restore order and protect lives"

[Svartalf]

except he doesn't want to relaunch the cold war... He knows one wrong move and he'll be the next Brezhnev

[mistermack]

except he doesn't want to relaunch the cold war... He knows one wrong move and he'll be the next Brezhnev

That didn't stop them in Georgia.
The difference there was that the Russians really were protecting people from an ethnic onslaught by the Georgians. I don't think it was wanted, and neither do they want anything similar in the Ukraine. But they might not get much of a choice, if the two sides face up against each other.
Going by the last election, sentiment is about evenly split in the country.
If they could just have a fair election, and ditch the assholes, and govern for everybody, whoever got in, it could go just fine.

But in times of stress, it seems that power gravitates to the aresholes, and they stick the boot in, if they win.
I'm available, if they want a neutral. Reasonable rates.
Well, just a few of those Ukranian wenches would keep me happy.
I used to date a girl who's parents were Ukrains. She was nice.

[JimC]

Russia may at least want to grab the eastern half, which I think includes the Crimean...

[mistermack]

Russia may at least want to grab the eastern half, which I think includes the Crimean...

If there was no cost or downside involved, they probably would like that.
But I don't think they have any ambitions of doing anything themselves. If the country split internally, of their own volition, it would be a different story.

Or if it was clear that there was the threat of imminent genocide of ethnic russians, like in Georgia, they might be forced to intervene.

Historically, Russia had full control of the Ukraine, but relinquished it without any armed uprising, or pressure from abroad. It's hardly likely that they would try to take back by force, what they relinquished peacefully.

[JimC]

Russia may at least want to grab the eastern half, which I think includes the Crimean...

If there was no cost or downside involved, they probably would like that.
But I don't think they have any ambitions of doing anything themselves. If the country split internally, of their own volition, it would be a different story.

Or if it was clear that there was the threat of imminent genocide of ethnic russians, like in Georgia, they might be forced to intervene.

Historically, Russia had full control of the Ukraine, but relinquished it without any armed uprising, or pressure from abroad. It's hardly likely that they would try to take back by force, what they relinquished peacefully.

You are probably right for the moment, but I wouldn't count on it for too long. The break up of the Soviet Union was a low point in Russian power, and I suspect the relinquishment of former territory at that time was a source of deep anger for many Russians. Putin has positioned himself as a champion of the nationalist aspirations of many Russians - the trajectory is there in embryo, at least...

[mistermack]

You are probably right for the moment, but I wouldn't count on it for too long. The break up of the Soviet Union was a low point in Russian power, and I suspect the relinquishment of former territory at that time was a source of deep anger for many Russians. Putin has positioned himself as a champion of the nationalist aspirations of many Russians - the trajectory is there in embryo, at least...

Certainly is. If things turn really nasty, lots of bad stuff is possible.

I have no idea what position the Ukrainian Army is taking on this.
Are they taking orders from the new ''President'', a completely unelected person foisted on them? Or are they just standing back, till things get clearer?
And will the army act as one, or fragment?

If I was a russian ukrainian, I would be feeling a bit robbed, at the moment.
You win an election, and get robbed of the result by people who light fires in the capital. That's not going to go down too well in the crimea.

[pErvinalia]

Oh crimea river.

[Hermit]

^^^ Good one.