Peak Oil and the Great Recession

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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by JimC » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:48 am

redunderthebed wrote:The problem with nuclear power is that its like coal and oil - not renewable not to mention the pollution and safety problem of which have yet to be address properly. Solar wind and tidal are all viable and massive investment is being made in it.You have also ignored seth geothermal energy a source of it has being found in the far north of south australia, which is equivalent to the oil reserves of kuwait and the technology is in place to get it on the national grid right now.

I think the status quo on the issue is unsustainable but it will take time and a gradual reduction in reliance on coal and oil. But to just say renewable energy is not pheasible is patently crap and proof is popping up the world over there are communities the world over that have large slice/majority of its electricity from renewable sources and they haven't all the sudden plunged into darkness i just think that there is a scare campaign going by the oil and coal lobby.
Geothermal has a lot of promise, but there are some tricky engineering issues involved; hopefully, over the next decade it will accelerate. Solar is also still massively under-utilised - in Oz, with some political will, there are Gigawatts to be had...

Even though fission plants involve a non-renewable resource, U235 supplies are good for at least 200 years, and are not an impossible option if done correctly.

We have many options, but the sooner we get off our collective arses, the less the eventual run-down in crude oil will bite us in the bum...
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Atheist-Lite » Sat Oct 22, 2011 12:21 pm

redunderthebed wrote:
Crumple wrote:Changes are not gradual. This idea that evolution is gradual is one I've never bought into. Wars and financial catastrophes, plagues, technical & idealogical innovations and other spot pressures will cause changes to be fragmentary but they'll be non-linear and large scale too. You'll find massive swings between extreme energy gluts and energy poverty, it'll be impossible to track it just like the transition from coal to oil....not easy to dis-entangle what actually happend with the interplay of so many historic forces. Then it'll be done - the energy will be there and will be flowing, the hydrogen age and the last epoch of life here on earth will have begun. The forcing dynamic of the terror of irreversible hyperbolic climate change will be the forcing pressure to make habitats in space. And before it all fully finally spirals and the earth dies we'll have cities in space.

It wouldn't have anything to do with that it doesn't fit into your dystopian view of the world. :ddpan:
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Seth » Sat Oct 22, 2011 2:54 pm

redunderthebed wrote:The problem with nuclear power is that its like coal and oil - not renewable not to mention the pollution and safety problem of which have yet to be address properly.


Strangely, France now gets something like 70 percent of it's electricity from nuclear and hasn't had an accident. And the fact is that EVERY source of energy is "non-renewable." It's a function of something called "entropy." The question is whether or not a particular energy source is usable, economical, reasonably safe and available in sufficient quantity to serve our energy needs today and for some forseeable period into the future.

You may pooh-pooh nuclear power, but there are few other viable alternatives.
Solar wind and tidal are all viable and massive investment is being made in it.
Solar is not viable. It costs far too much to convert sunlight to electricity and the efficiencies are quite low. That may change, but until it does, and the cost per watt is cut by a factor of ten, it will not be widely useful. Besides, it's only available when the sun shines, and the systems that attempt to store it are complex, expensive, and inefficient. This means that it only functions as an adjunct to parallel systems like coal, natural gas and nuclear, not a replacement.

Tidal power again is a minority player and will be for a long, long time. The technology has a long way to go before it makes up any major portion of our electrical capacity.

You have also ignored seth geothermal energy a source of it has being found in the far north of south australia, which is equivalent to the oil reserves of kuwait and the technology is in place to get it on the national grid right now.
Geothermal does indeed have great promise, but again, it's location dependent to a great extent. Where it's available, like Iceland, it can produce a lot of power using steam generating systems that are mature technology. But it's not available everywhere, and the line losses inherent in transmitting power make it far less useful outside of geothermal resource areas.
I think the status quo on the issue is unsustainable but it will take time and a gradual reduction in reliance on coal and oil.


Indeed. The key is "gradual." It's not just the technology for electricity that's involved, it's also the transportation fleet and its need for fuel and there is simply no fuel that can, at present, substitute for gasoline and diesel fuel. Liquified Natural Gas has potential, but the massive investment in distribution infrastructure and suitable engines guarantees that the changeover will be measured in decades, not years. One thing that eco-nuts fail to consider in their zeal to proselytize for "renewable" energy is that the economy simply cannot afford to discard the trillions of dollars invested in the current oil-gas-diesel-natural gas systems that we use today. Fleet replacements to vehicles using the far less energy dense natural gas await a distribution network of natural gas refill stations that equals the distribution network for gasoline and diesel. That network alone will cost trillions of dollars to create, and it won't be created till there is demand for it, and the demand for it awaits the availability of the network.

In other words, the reason that natural-gas fueled vehicles remain bit players limited to municipal and short-range commercial fleets is because if you can't refuel almost anywhere, like you can with gas and diesel, you aren't going to buy a natural-gas fueled vehicle. Municipal fleets, like buses, and short-range transport like in-plant truck fleets work only because the vehicles remain close to their fueling points.

And then there's the inherent inferiority of natural gas as a fuel because it is far less energy-dense than gasoline and diesel. This creates design issues for vehicles that need long-range capacity.


But to just say renewable energy is not pheasible is patently crap and proof is popping up the world over there are communities the world over that have large slice/majority of its electricity from renewable sources and they haven't all the sudden plunged into darkness i just think that there is a scare campaign going by the oil and coal lobby.
Name five major cities that have a "large slice/majority" of renewable sources as their primary energy source. Hell, name one.

Fact is that in the US, all "renewable" energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal and tide) account for about two percent of our electrical power, and almost every such system is heavily subsidized by the government, which means that almost none of them are actually economically feasible.

Citing examples of small communities that use renewables doesn't address the issues of scale. I can build an off-grid solar house that uses no line electricity...at high cost, with a payback that goes into decades, and adapt my lifestyle to deal with the inherent inefficiencies. Some few people do so. But this does not address the needs of the vast majority of human beings, particularly those living in cities.

We will be burning coal and natural gas, and hopefully increasing our use of nuclear power for at least the next century. That's simply a fact of life you have to learn to accept.

This does not mean that maturing renewables so that they become economically viable is not a good thing to do, just that the press to "switch over" that is actually being driven by global government proponents has less to do with energy and more to do with power and control.

Renewables will come into their own as the market demands them, and not before. And that will be a long time yet, certainly long after both of us are dead. Until then, a rational, reasonable, and affordable policy of finding and developing renewable energy resources, sans all the hype and hysteria, is what's needed.

Fusion is our best hope, and that's where our resources should be directed, not at the bit-players of solar and wind.
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Seth » Sat Oct 22, 2011 3:04 pm

JimC wrote: Solar is also still massively under-utilised - in Oz, with some political will, there are Gigawatts to be had...
At a cost of gigabux. Just take your present national energy use and calculate how many square miles worth of solar panels it takes to supply that load at an efficiency of less than 15 percent per square meter, and then figure out how you're going to power everything at night and you'll get an inkling of why there is no "political will" to beggar the economy on a pipe dream of delusional eco-nuts.
Even though fission plants involve a non-renewable resource, U235 supplies are good for at least 200 years, and are not an impossible option if done correctly.
Yup.

Then there's clean coal technology. There's a 200 year supply of coal in the US.
We have many options, but the sooner we get off our collective arses, the less the eventual run-down in crude oil will bite us in the bum...
Factually speaking, the economy won't replace oil till the scarcity drives the price above alternative sources. Planning is good, but we have so much invested in our developed oil use infrastructure that the economy cannot afford to switch over in less than a couple of generations at a minimum.
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Warren Dew » Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:29 pm

JimC wrote:Geothermal has a lot of promise, but there are some tricky engineering issues involved; hopefully, over the next decade it will accelerate.
People are all worried about climate change from mucking with the temperature of the atmosphere now; why are we not worried about similar problems from mucking with the temperature of the earth? Honestly, we should start thinking about these things before they bite us, not afterwards.
We have many options, but the sooner we get off our collective arses, the less the eventual run-down in crude oil will bite us in the bum...
The correct solution is more efficient energy use. Moving from one place to another has zero net energy cost; we should be getting our energy waste down as close to zero as possible. Hybrids are a big step in the right direction, and fully electric cars, which are the next step, are already being produced as well.

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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Atheist-Lite » Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:36 pm

The correct solution is a manmade plague designed to reduce the number of human beings to what the earth can sustain, or at least to reduce the numbers sufficiently so that the survivors have enough resources per head to make a go of getting off planet before she blows. :smoke:
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Seth » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:16 am

Warren Dew wrote:
JimC wrote:Geothermal has a lot of promise, but there are some tricky engineering issues involved; hopefully, over the next decade it will accelerate.
People are all worried about climate change from mucking with the temperature of the atmosphere now; why are we not worried about similar problems from mucking with the temperature of the earth? Honestly, we should start thinking about these things before they bite us, not afterwards.
The pumping of hazardous wastewater from a chemical munitions factory location east of Denver some decades ago into deep (very deep) formations caused some earthquakes, which caused the pumping to be stopped.

Imagine the bad things that could happen if a deep geothermal well tapped into a magma pocket, giving it a route to the surface.
We have many options, but the sooner we get off our collective arses, the less the eventual run-down in crude oil will bite us in the bum...
The correct solution is more efficient energy use. Moving from one place to another has zero net energy cost; we should be getting our energy waste down as close to zero as possible. Hybrids are a big step in the right direction, and fully electric cars, which are the next step, are already being produced as well.
I suppose one can do the math and figure out exactly what the energy budget is to move one pound of cargo from New York to Los Angeles at any reasonable overall efficiency to see how much energy we will need no matter what. There are practical limits to how efficient transportation can be while remaining practical after all.

If we manage to come up with storage batteries that are as energy-dense and quickly recharged as diesel and a fuel tank, electric vehicles might become viable. I don't see that happening any time soon, and even if there is a breakthrough, we still have to PROVIDE the recharging power, and the infrastructure to serve a fleet of electric vehicles, which is going to be a huge cost to build and/or upgrade our present generating/distribution systems.

I'm not holding my breath.
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Hermit » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:27 am

Warren Dew wrote:Hybrids are a big step in the right direction, and fully electric cars, which are the next step, are already being produced as well.
Converting one form of energy to electricity stored in batteries is inherently wasteful. In Australia most electricity is generated by burning coal. People who think electric cars are more environmentally friendly than similar sized petrol powered ones are deluded.
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Atheist-Lite » Sun Oct 23, 2011 3:11 am

Seraph wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:Hybrids are a big step in the right direction, and fully electric cars, which are the next step, are already being produced as well.
Converting one form of energy to electricity stored in batteries is inherently wasteful. In Australia most electricity is generated by burning coal. People who think electric cars are more environmentally friendly than similar sized petrol powered ones are deluded.

The bicycle is quite efficient. Within the short distances that comprise towns and most cities there is no need for motorised transport beyond emergency services and certain larger deliveries. Try telling a car driver that you'd think their balls are being cut off? :smoke:
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by JimC » Sun Oct 23, 2011 4:16 am

Seraph wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:Hybrids are a big step in the right direction, and fully electric cars, which are the next step, are already being produced as well.
Converting one form of energy to electricity stored in batteries is inherently wasteful. In Australia most electricity is generated by burning coal. People who think electric cars are more environmentally friendly than similar sized petrol powered ones are deluded.
You are correct if no other action is taken, certainly; however, if you put enough photovoltaic panels on your roof (grid connected), you could generate enough extra power (on average) to make up for re-charging your car.
Or you could opt to pay for "green energy" (at a slightly higher price), where the company has to increase its electricity sourced from renewable resources to match the numbers of its "green" customers.
Seth wrote:

Imagine the bad things that could happen if a deep geothermal well tapped into a magma pocket, giving it a route to the surface.
This is simply wrong. It is very straightforward to identify a "deep magma pocket" by seismic survey - they are not going to stumble on one by accident. Anyway, the geothermal areas under investigation at present in Australia have no magma at anywhere near the depths being drilled to. If you were drilling in NZ, you would have to be more careful, but even there, you are not going to drill into a magma chamber by accident, unless your staff geologists were totally incompetent.
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Seth » Sun Oct 23, 2011 4:24 am

Crumple wrote:
Seraph wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:Hybrids are a big step in the right direction, and fully electric cars, which are the next step, are already being produced as well.
Converting one form of energy to electricity stored in batteries is inherently wasteful. In Australia most electricity is generated by burning coal. People who think electric cars are more environmentally friendly than similar sized petrol powered ones are deluded.

The bicycle is quite efficient. Within the short distances that comprise towns and most cities there is no need for motorised transport beyond emergency services and certain larger deliveries. Try telling a car driver that you'd think their balls are being cut off? :smoke:
Bicycles are useful in very limited situations for very specific people. They are not convenient, they cannot be used when one expects to remain well-dressed, they cannot carry significant cargo or equipment, they are a pain to use in bad weather and cannot be reliably or usefully used in snow, they cannot transport children or more than one passenger, they cannot serve the needs of the handicapped, they are slow and one is extremely vulnerable while riding one on the streets.

In sum, they are expensive toys for dilettantes and self-righteous eco-nuts, not a useful or reliable form of transportation for the masses, even in an urban environment, much less in suburban or rural environments. They are only useful because most people do NOT ride bikes. And a bike-jam is every bit as bad as a traffic jam.
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by JimC » Sun Oct 23, 2011 4:33 am

Seth wrote:
Crumple wrote:
Seraph wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:Hybrids are a big step in the right direction, and fully electric cars, which are the next step, are already being produced as well.
Converting one form of energy to electricity stored in batteries is inherently wasteful. In Australia most electricity is generated by burning coal. People who think electric cars are more environmentally friendly than similar sized petrol powered ones are deluded.

The bicycle is quite efficient. Within the short distances that comprise towns and most cities there is no need for motorised transport beyond emergency services and certain larger deliveries. Try telling a car driver that you'd think their balls are being cut off? :smoke:
Bicycles are useful in very limited situations for very specific people. They are not convenient, they cannot be used when one expects to remain well-dressed, they cannot carry significant cargo or equipment, they are a pain to use in bad weather and cannot be reliably or usefully used in snow, they cannot transport children or more than one passenger, they cannot serve the needs of the handicapped, they are slow and one is extremely vulnerable while riding one on the streets.

In sum, they are expensive toys for dilettantes and self-righteous eco-nuts, not a useful or reliable form of transportation for the masses, even in an urban environment, much less in suburban or rural environments. They are only useful because most people do NOT ride bikes. And a bike-jam is every bit as bad as a traffic jam.
Tell that to my son, then, who happily rides most days to work at the EPA (quite a few km each way). Admittedly, he is a very fit young bloke (and this helps to keep him that way) and the terrain is reasonable. Melbourne has a network of bike paths that works quite well... (And admittedly he drives if the rain is teeming down...)

However, I agree they have limitations as you state, and are not some sort of panacea for all our ills. Generally, I think there is no one simple solution; a variety of approaches are needed. A higher proprtion of people riding bikes where the situation allows for it can be part of the mix; it can be financially sensible, too, as you don't need that expensive gym membership anymore! ;)
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Hermit » Sun Oct 23, 2011 4:35 am

Seth wrote:[Bicycles] are expensive toys for dilettantes and self-righteous eco-nuts, not a useful or reliable form of transportation for the masses, even in an urban environment, much less in suburban or rural environments. They are only useful because most people do NOT ride bikes. And a bike-jam is every bit as bad as a traffic jam.
Have you ever lived in Europe? It appears not.
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Seth » Sun Oct 23, 2011 4:37 am

Seraph wrote:
Seth wrote:[Bicycles] are expensive toys for dilettantes and self-righteous eco-nuts, not a useful or reliable form of transportation for the masses, even in an urban environment, much less in suburban or rural environments. They are only useful because most people do NOT ride bikes. And a bike-jam is every bit as bad as a traffic jam.
Have you ever lived in Europe? It appears not.
Nope. But America is different. Different urban densities, different housing schemes, different culture. Bikes are not viable mass transportation here.
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Re: Peak Oil and the Great Recession

Post by Atheist-Lite » Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:04 am

Seth wrote:
Seraph wrote:
Seth wrote:[Bicycles] are expensive toys for dilettantes and self-righteous eco-nuts, not a useful or reliable form of transportation for the masses, even in an urban environment, much less in suburban or rural environments. They are only useful because most people do NOT ride bikes. And a bike-jam is every bit as bad as a traffic jam.
Have you ever lived in Europe? It appears not.
Nope. But America is different. Different urban densities, different housing schemes, different culture. Bikes are not viable mass transportation here.
You'll get the idea once America is cut out of international oil markets after the inevitable dollar crash. :crumple:
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