Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

[pErvinalia]

No. Need to up the revenue side. Spending has already been cut to within an inch of its life.

[Scot Dutchy]

Hermit once again comparing oranges and apples.

external debt, which is the total public and private debt owed to nonresidents

Private debt is just that private and has nothing to do with governments. The Netherlands is doing fine. It is a merchant country and has been from the 15th century. Why you bring in something which does not affect the country I dont know. Debt is not bad but how you handle it is important. Investment can create debt. Government debt is far more important and that case there is no problem.

Did you actually read about Switzerland or was that just another wave of the hand.
The EU is not only an economic union it is a political one. Harmonisation is occurring in many sectors. The next big field is taxes. The EU parliament is given more and more powers taking the from the Commission and the Council. At present the Parliament cant introduce bills but that is going to change so taking exclusive powers away from the Commission.

The UK is not Switzerland or Norway and never will be. It has no wealth and relies solely on trade so leaving the EU will be a disaster of massive proportions. Living in the WTO world will be terrible until some FTA can get signed which could be years down the road and with whom?

[Scot Dutchy]

Like I said, Hitler would have won, if it were not for Britain. It should be obvious, even to the dumbest.

What a dumb thing to say. Britain was in 1941 hanging on by its eyebrows and luckily Hitler did not accept his intelligence otherwise he could have easily invaded the UK. There was nothing to stop him instead he went east which was his downfall. The incredible defence shown by the Soviets costing millions of lives that turned the war also allowed American and Empire forces to brought into the UK.

[Brian Peacock]

Like I said, Hitler would have won, if it were not for Britain. It should be obvious, even to the dumbest.

The Russians would have lost without British and US help, and the US would not have helped anyone, if Britain had not been still in the game.

The Polish would have had nowhere to go and no planes to fly.
The utmost bollocks gets written on this thread. Without Britain, Europe and Russia would still be under the Nazis now. The US would be the second biggest power, and China would be nowhere. (That's if the Nazis had left them alone)
And HItler would have got the nukes long before little US. And the rockets to send them with.

How the fuck would they have launched D day without Britain?

You people make I larf.

Please show relevance.

[Scot Dutchy]

Never mind a few Norwegians that delayed the Nazi development of a nuclear weapon by a few years.
mistermack wants to read a real history book and not the Boys Own version. Even Churchill was very frightened in 1941 which he wrote in his diary.

[Brian Peacock]

German industry warns UK not to expect help in Brexit talks

Senior ministers have repeatedly claimed since the election that Germany’s powerful exporters will exert pressure for a deal handing Britain substantial access to the EU’s markets.

However, ministers are told that it is up to the British government to limit the economic fallout from its decision to leave the single market. With the government facing new pressure from business to soften its Brexit plans, German industrialists also warn that Britain will struggle to avoid economic damage as a result of exiting the bloc.

Two of Germany’s biggest industry groups have told the Observer that their main concern during the Brexit process is protecting the single market for the remaining 27 members, even if this harms trade with Britain.

Dieter Kempf, president of the BDI, the federation of German industries, said: “Defending the single market, a key European project, must be the priority for the European Union. Europe must maintain the integrity of the single market and its four freedoms: goods, capital, services, and labour.

“It is the responsibility of the British government to limit the damage on both sides of the Channel. Over the coming months, it will be extraordinarily difficult to avert negative effects on British businesses in particular.”

And Ingo Kramer, president of the confederation of German employers’ associations (BDA), told the Observer: “The single market is one of the major assets of the EU. Access to the single market requires the acceptance of all four single market freedoms.

“The UK will remain a very important partner for us, but we need a fair deal for both sides respecting this principle. The cohesion of the remaining 27 EU member states has highest priority.”...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ver-brexit

Boris, 2016: "I must say that I think that it was extraordinary to hear that we would have tariffs imposed on us because everybody knows that this country receives about a fifth of Germany's entire car manufacturing output - 820,000 vehicles a year. Do you seriously suppose that they are going to be so insane as to allow tariffs to be imposed between Britain and Germany?"

But Boris. Boris Boris Boris. The UK will not and cannot influence direct trade with Germany - the UK will have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU - but there will be a trade agreement, eventually, and as usual tariffs will be imposed from both sides depending on the nature of that agreement. What you and that slap-headed cripple killer Mr Duncum-Smith can't just assert, nor demand, is for everything to carry on as if the UK hasn't, you know, left the European Union.

[Scot Dutchy]

That sentiment is one very prevalent in the Brexiteers psyche. "Remember this is GREAT Britain".

[Scot Dutchy]

This article IMHO expresses the mood of Brexit:

One by one, Brexit’s ‘salvations’ are seen to be illusory

All the pre-referendum claims made for our future trading position within Europe are now exposed as so much hot air

Like Vladimir and Estragon, the British right is waiting for its Godot. For years, Godot manifested himself in the unlikely form of the German car industry. English nationalists invoked its name as if it were a spell that could protect the nation from hard times and harder questions.

From Boris Johnson and Michael Gove in the Leave campaign, through to Iain Duncan Smith and David Davis today, they convinced 17 million or so voters that BMW would ensure we could have our cake and eat it too. “The first calling point of the UK’s negotiator immediately after #Brexit will not be Brussels, it will be Berlin, to strike a deal,” announced Davis in May 2016. German car manufacturers would want access to the British market. The German government would listen and grant us privileged access to the single market in return.

As it has turned out, economics has not trumped politics. And although I am instinctively a materialist, I have to admit it rarely does. Try to find an economic explanation for nationalism or religious fanaticism, or for middle-class professionals supporting left-wing parties or working-class voters support for rightwing parties, and your arguments rapidly lose conviction. Economics did not trump politics when Britain voted to leave the EU. It does not trump politics now that 27 countries are determined to preserve the union. And not only as a defence against a return of fascism and communism.

Other countries have their national interests too. The supposedly omnipotent German car manufacturers did not stop Angela Merkel imposing sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, even though sanctions hurt sales. Germany, like the rest of Europe, like Britain itself, had an interest in stopping the rebirth of Russian imperialism and that came first. In any case, defending the single market will have long-term economic benefits for every large company in Europe, their workers and the old, the sick and the young who rely on their tax revenues. As German industrialists make clear, they would rather lose British sales than see the world’s richest market undermined.

More...

Money does not mean everything in the EU.

BTW rum

There is a reference there to Davis's ignorance of the EU.

[Hermit]

The Netherlands is doing fine.

Yes. How many more times need I say I agree?

The EU is not only an economic union it is a political one.

Yes again. It is first and foremost an economic one, though. Look at its "four freedoms".

Anyway, again, you seem to have missed what I am objecting to. The UK will not sink on account of an increase of national debt brought about by Brexit. It will take an economic hit, but both Switzerland and Norway are doing rather well outside the Union, so non-membership does not guarantee the UK's ruin. AS has been pointed out a number of times now, even if 40 or 50% of the UK's economy is with the EU (which of course it is not) its exit will only reduce it somewhat, not end it. The Brits will just buy fewer BMWs and the Europeans fewer Jaguars, so to speak.

[Rum]

Possibly 'No Brexit'?

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40547733

Sir Vince Cable - the likely next Lib Dem leader - says he is "beginning to think Brexit may never happen".

He said "enormous" divisions in the Labour and the Tory parties and a "deteriorating" economy would make people think again.

"People will realise that we didn't vote to be poorer, and I think the whole question of continued membership will once again arise," he said.

He was speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr show.
Key Brexit bill faces opposition
Cable open to cross-party Brexit working

His comments were dismissed by leading Eurosceptic Conservative MP Owen Paterson, who said Sir Vince was just "chucking buckets of water around" and ignoring the "huge vote" in favour of leaving in the referendum and at the general election, where the two main parties backed Brexit.

"Vince Cable's party went down in votes, as did the other little parties who want to stay in the European Union," he told the BBC's Sunday Politics.

He added: "I am afraid Vince is behind history. We are going to leave. We are on target."

Sir Vince conceded that the Lib Dem policy on a second referendum on the terms of a Brexit deal "didn't really cut through in the general election".

But he said it could offer voters "a way out when it becomes clear the Brexit is potentially disastrous".

[Scot Dutchy]

Sorry wishful thinking. Brexit is Brexit. Art 50 is very clear about it. You leave or you leave with a trade deal. There is nothing else. Oh a mutual agreement with all 28 countries might possibly annul it but that is presuming the 27 can agree which highly unlikely and even so everything will not wind back to the 22nd of June. Damage is done. The UK will not be allowed all the opt-outs and will have to join the Euro and Schengen. Now do you see the UK accepting that? A second referendum is not possible. Art 50 is an international agreement based on the Vienna protocol. May sent the letter and it was accepted the clock started.

[Brian Peacock]

That "huge vote" in favour Mr Patterson refers to was 3% difference from a 72% turnout.

[mistermack]

Vince Cable is staring the extinction of the Liberal Democrats in the face. His only straw of hope is to push the "we should not leave" message, and try to take the "I told you so" credit, if things go pear shaped.

But it's not going to happen. I can't link to it, but the last thing I heard, the polls now show that a new vote today would result in 75% for leave, compared to just over 50 in the referendum.

People now want to leave, who voted to stay, and they don't mind paying a price, if a price has to be paid.
If there is a temporary price, we'll get it back in the end.

Anything's possible. Vince Cable might be onto a good strategy. But I doubt it. He's pursuing it because he's out of options, not because he thinks it will really happen.

[Brian Peacock]

Was it this YouGov poll?

[rainbow]

Vince Cable is staring the extinction of the Liberal Democrats in the face. His only straw of hope is to push the "we should not leave" message, and try to take the "I told you so" credit, if things go pear shaped.

But it's not going to happen. I can't link to it, but the last thing I heard, the polls now show that a new vote today would result in 75% for leave, compared to just over 50 in the referendum.

People now want to leave, who voted to stay, and they don't mind paying a price, if a price has to be paid.
If there is a temporary price, we'll get it back in the end.

Anything's possible. Vince Cable might be onto a good strategy. But I doubt it. He's pursuing it because he's out of options, not because he thinks it will really happen.

I certainly do hope that it goes through and the Pound collapses.
That makes it easier for me to visit your quaint little soggy island.